There’s no such thing as an “off year” election. Today, three states (Pennsylvania, Maine, and California) are holding elections that will shape the future of voting rights and representation within their borders – and therefore the balance of power across the country. Meanwhile, Virginia, New Jersey and New York City will be bellwethers of how much progress the Democratic Party has made in building a winning coalition, fighting authoritarianism, and returning to power.
Tonight, as election results come in, here’s where to put your attention:
Pennsylvania voters will decide the future of the state Supreme Court – and therefore election cases – in the country’s largest swing state. Three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices, all Democrats, are up for retention elections today. These justices decide significant cases on numerous issues, like the environment and abortion rights, that matter to Pennsylvanians. Critically, these justices also oversee cases related to voting, redistricting, and elections.
That means that if Democrats don’t hold these Pennsylvania Supreme Court seats, we’re looking at major open races that could lead to Republicans spending untold millions to try to install election-denying justices, just as Elon Musk tried in Wisconsin earlier this year. The GOP and Jeffrey Yass – the Pennsylvania-based ByteDance owner who is worth an estimated $65.7 billion – have already poured significant funds into the Supreme Court race. Tonight, look out for whether Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wechthang hang on to their posts and maintain the Democratic majority on the Court. It shouldn’t be this way, but Democrats’ ability to gain control of Congress and the presidency in future elections could depend on what happens in Pennsylvania today.
Maine voters will decide whether they’re going to reject voter suppression. During today’s special election, Mainers will vote on a Republican-sponsored ballot measure, known as both Voter ID for ME and Question 1. The measure would enact 25 new voting restrictions, many of them designed to restrict mail voting, which Trump has called “corrupt” and promised to ban. Question 1 would also require specific photo ID for voting, put restrictions on allowing other people to pick up or drop off a mail ballot, prohibit local governments from providing postage for returning a ballot, among other changes that would make it more difficult for Mainers to vote. Access to the ballot always matters, and it matters a lot in Maine ahead of the 2026 midterms given that Sen. Susan Collins has multiple potential Democratic challengers who can draw a crowd.
Virginia is usually a bellwether: Because Virginia elections run on the so-called “off-year,” they’re often considered an indication of where we’re headed in the following year’s major election year, in this case, the 2026 midterms. This year, the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general are all up for election, as well as all members of the state House of Delegates.
In the governor’s race, Democratic candidate and former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger is running against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger’s campaign has focused on slamming Trump’s economic agenda that harms ordinary people, including the many Virginians affected by mass government layoffs and now furloughs during the shutdown.
You might have heard that New York City will elect a mayor. The roughly 90,000 New Yorkers who have volunteered for Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani may be on the brink of achieving what I for one assumed was impossible: Defeating the real estate industry, the city’s most intense corporate lobby, which has poured millions of dollars into PACs supporting the candidacy of Andrew Cuomo, who is running on the Fight and Deliver party line. Like Spanberger, Mamdani has been emphasizing economic struggles and affordability. And just like in Virginia, the message is resonating. It’s almost like the American people want their government to serve them and their neighbors, not billionaires.